Advances in technology will keep energy supplies plentiful and affordable – enough to meet projected demand many times over – and help pave the way to a lower carbon energy mix, according to data published on Monday in the BP Technology Outlook.
According to BP, its Technology Outlook shows how technology can play a major role in meeting challenges the world of energy is facing, particularly in meeting increasing demand with less environmental impact. As BP says, it can be done by widening energy resource choices, transforming the power sector, improving transport efficiency and helping to address climate concerns out to 2050.
BP’s CEO Bob Dudley says that technology opens up a whole range of possibilities across the energy sector. He says it can bring great value to consumers and businesses, and it can also disrupt and challenge existing models.
“Today, for the first time, we are sharing our analysis of energy technologies and the options they present society in the quest for an abundant, sustainable and lower carbon energy future,” Dudley says.
BP says its 80-page Technology Outlook sets out technology and policy choices governments and industry can make around energy resources, oil and gas supply, power generation, transport, and options for reducing carbon emissions.
Technology could increase oil and gas resources
According to BP Technology Outlook, by applying today’s best technologies to discover oil and gas resources could significantly increase ‘proved reserves’ from 2.9 trillion barrels of oil equivalent to 4.8 trillion barrels – nearly double the 2.5 trillion barrels required to meet projected cumulative global demand through to 2050.
Wind and solar to continue reducing costs
The Technology Outlook further shows that, in the power sector, which currently accounts for 38% of world primary energy demand, gas and coal-fired power are generally the most competitive today. BP’s analysis predicts wind and solar will continue reducing costs at around 14% and 24% respectively per doubling in installed capacity, consistent with past performance, and hence become more competitive over time.
In North America, and ignoring taxes and subsidies, as seen in the Outlook, modern combined-cycle gas turbine power plants would have a cost advantage over coal today if policy makers were to adopt a modest price on carbon dioxide of less than $40 per tonne. By 2050, a carbon dioxide price of $80 per tonne would make onshore wind technology competitive with gas-fired power, with utility scale solar photovoltaic close to being competitive, even accounting for the cost of managing intermittency. This price on carbon would also make carbon capture and sequestration with gas-fired power economic.
Liquid fuels will dominate transportation
The publication suggests that liquid fuels will continue to dominate global transportation through to 2035 and beyond, largely due to their high energy density. The average efficiency of new light-duty vehicles is expected to improve by 2-3% per year as a result of increased hybridization and improved powertrains, combined with advanced fuels and lubricants.
By 2050, electric vehicles could be approaching cost-parity with the internal combustion engine, due to advances in battery technology, while fuel cell vehicles could still have further to go.
Growing influence of digital technology
The report also highlights the growing influence that digital technologies are having on the energy industry.
According to BP Group Head of Technology David Eyton, digital technologies – such as advanced sensors, data analytics, robotics and automation, enabled by supercomputing – have the most widespread potential to drive change and make energy supply and consumption safer, more reliable, more efficient and more cost-effective.
He said: “These technologies are already transforming the oil and gas industry, and the longer term possibilities are frankly difficult to imagine.”
“We are also staying close to developments in biosciences and advanced materials, which could lead to extraordinary improvements in the performance of fossil and non-fossil energy systems, including batteries, solar conversion and hydrogen as a fuel,” Eyton added.